FLAGSTAFF, Ariz. — Farmers in central and southern Arizona would take the hit from a projected shortage in Colorado River water, but the state’s major metropolitan areas would be shielded. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation released projections Friday that show a 2 percent chance of Lake Mead in Nevada reaching the trigger point in 2015 for a shortage declaration and a 50 percent chance in 2016.

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